Labour will benefit from expected increased turnout - Jmes Wrynn
Issued : Friday 18 May, 2007
The Labour Party General Election campaign, which is probably the most efficient and professional in the history of the Labour Party, moves into its final phase this weekend.
Most constituencies have completed a full round of canvassing and they will be now returning to key areas in the days between now and Thursday to try to copper fasten our support. New posters are going up in most areas over the weekend and this time we are taking particular steps to ensure the highest possible turnout of voters.
Indeed I expect a significant increase in the 62.7% turnout in May 2002 and I believe that Labour will benefit from this. There are two factors that will contribute to this. Firstly, despite continued problems in some areas, the electoral register is significantly more accurate that in 2002. Secondly there is a far higher level of interest in the election than on the last occasion. Canvassers report a real level of engagement on the doorstep and a degree of interest in political issues that has not been evident for some time.
The level of interest is also a direct result of the fact that, unlike 2002, there is a viable, alternative government on offer to the Irish people.
Although I was not Director of Elections in 2002, I was closely involved in the organization of the campaign at national level. Quite honestly in 2002 we had some difficulty in motivating the members of our organization in a number of areas. We have had no such problem on this occasion, with a record turnout of canvassers and volunteers in virtually every constituency in the country.
There have been five national opinion polls since the Dail was dissolved. Labour has shown an increase in four of these polls and no change in the other. The canvass returns I have been receiving as Director of Elections suggest an even more positive picture. Experienced political activists, who have canvassed in election after election over a period of many years, have reported to me that rarely, if ever, before have they experienced such a mood for change.
At the beginning of the campaign, Pat Rabbitte said that from constituencies were we already hold seats, there were twelve candidates will a real chance of winning additional seats. Based on the returns I have received to date from Directors of Election I believe that this is an entirely realistic and achievable target for the party. For instance in a number of the five seat constituencies, I am now confident that we have a realistic chance of taking a second seat.
There is a another crucial difference between 2007 and 2002. In 2002 the Fianna Fail campaign was well organized, slick and professional. We were left at the starting post and never really had any chance of catching up. This time it is quite different. The Fianna Fail campaign at national level stuttered to a slow and uncertain start and it has not got much better since then. Attacks on the opposition have not worked and particularly gaffe-prone ministers have been told to keep a low profile.
One of the most significant differences of course has been the role played by the Taoiseach. In 2002 the entire Fianna Fail campaign was built around the personality of the Taoiseach. He was the public face of the campaign. Up to last night's debate, the Taoiseach has played a very low key role despite the initial decision to structure the campaign very strongly around his leadership campaign.
In contrast to that Pat Rabbitte has been played the key role in our election campaign. We are greatly encouraged by the reception he is getting around the country. Every constituency wants him because of the warmth of the reception he gets. I have no doubt that his popularity, his strength and his authority will reap a big reward for Labour candidates on polling day.
